Ahead of Governor Newsom’s trip to an overseas climate conference last year, his office made an announcement: California’s greenhouse gas emissions had fallen 21% since 2000 – and the state’s economy grew 81% over the same period.

Claiming this as proof the state’s climate programs are working, the governor declared: “California continues to lead the way. It’s time for the rest of the nation to follow.”

It’s a compelling claim, and the Newsom administration likes it (a lot). But a rigorous analysis by the Breakthrough Institute, a Berkeley-based environmental research center, raises serious questions about the story behind the numbers.

The Breakthrough authors are direct:

“Extraordinary growth rates in a handful of tech-centric counties have obscured the costs of the state’s climate regime. California’s climate policies have contributed to slow economic growth for most of the state, and have disproportionately punished the poor and non-college educated workers.”

Pointing to an “exodus of energy intensive industries” that has limited employment opportunities for the state’s working class, the analysis notes that 71% of California counties grew slower than the national average between 2017 and 2023.

The California Manufacturers and Technology Association agrees with the indictment. Representing 34,000 manufacturers statewide, this spring the association warned that rising energy costs have made California “one of the most difficult states in the country to operate.”

The result is an economy that increasingly leaves working families behind.

As CalMatters columnist Dan Walters noted last year, at 17.7%, California is tied with Louisiana for the highest cost-adjusted poverty rate in the nation – and the situation appears to be worsening:

“California’s rate is also 2.3 percentage points higher than it was in the Census Bureau’s previous three-year calculation, implying that its living costs vis-à-vis incomes had increased markedly.”

For the Breakthrough Institute, the conclusion is clear:

“Until the state demonstrates that it can cut its emissions equitably, such that working people once more see the Golden State as a land of opportunity rather than fleeing it, California should not be held up as a model of climate governance.”

California needs energy policies that work for the working class – not just those at the top.