A new TV ad from Californians for Energy Independence highlights an alarming trend:

“State policies are the main driver for two major refineries shutting down, eliminating about 18% of our in-state fuel supply.”

Indeed, Phillips 66 will close its Wilmington refinery by the end of the year. And Valero intends to shut down its Benicia operation by April 2026.

The policy-driven loss of two key fuel suppliers in just a matter of months has experts warning of higher prices at the pump. 

UC Berkeley energy economist Severin Borenstein has said that California’s dwindling fuel production capacities could result in supply shortfalls that raise gasoline prices “many dollars per gallon,” telling SFGATE:

“Between the two of them, they produce almost 20% of California’s gasoline, which is a huge blow … [Y]ou can’t take 20% of the supply away without having a very significant impact on the price.”

A recent analysis by USC professor Michael Mische confirms those fears, finding that the upcoming refinery closures could push gas prices above $8.00 per gallon.

The CEI ad highlights these dynamics and their impacts on California families:

“California already has the nation’s highest gas prices, and soon they could skyrocket even higher … Because when there’s less fuel to go around, you pay more.”

Sacramento has long ignored warnings that its policies could stifle an industry that tens of millions of Californians depend on every day. Now, as the state’s ability to produce transportation fuels declines alarmingly faster than demand, consumers and businesses will pay the price.

View the new CEI ad here.