Could increasing fuel imports put the world’s fourth-largest economy one international crisis away from lines at the pump?
“Imports also introduce new vulnerabilities into the fuel supply by making the State more exposed to impacts of geopolitical events, external markets, and regulatory changes in other jurisdictions.”
That warning took on new urgency with the launch of military action in Iran late last month. In a Forbes commentary, energy expert Robert Rapier noted that California was “uniquely exposed” to impacts from the conflict due to market isolation and import dependence:
“California’s combination of declining in-state production, lack of crude pipeline connectivity, refinery configuration constraints, and shrinking capacity leaves it more exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz than most Americans realize. When crude flows through that chokepoint tighten, the consequences are not abstract. They are reflected in fuel availability and prices on the West Coast.”
Furthermore, past attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea illustrate how import vulnerabilities persist even during times of relative calm.
Relying on imports also forces California to add foreign fuel producers and international commodities traders to the gasoline supply chain. These middlemen are focused on profit and have no accountability to our state.
As one industry analyst recently told Fortune:
“The Asian suppliers are very interested in the California market. That’s because they see a necessary willingness from California to pay more. For California to get the supply that they need, they’re going to have to up their price. They’re going to have to up their bid.”
“Generally, commodity traders are not interested in the absolute level of commodity prices, high or low, but in the geographic or technical price differentials of commodities that make moving them around the world and transforming them profitable.”
Engaging foreign gasoline markets is complicated by the fact that a small number of refineries worldwide are able to make California’s cleaner-burning fuel, and shipments from foreign suppliers can take up to six weeks to reach California.
And the complications don’t end once an order is placed: global competitors can outbid California for fuel or blending components, rerouting ships mid-journey and leaving the state empty-handed.
Foreign refineries also source crude oil from sanctioned countries or direct adversaries of the United States. In December 2025, ABC 10 reported on concerns that California’s refinery closures could present national security issues, noting that the state increasingly imports fuel products from India which sources crude oil from Russia.
California drivers use 1 billion gallons of gasoline per month. The state shouldn’t rely on an unstable world for the fuel it needs every day.
