In addition to raising prices at the pump and sending jobs and tax revenues out of state, any gasoline import strategy must also contend with basic physics.

Due to California’s lack of pipeline connections to other U.S. refining centers, fuel that isn’t produced in-state must arrive through the state’s ports – and there is a limit to the amount of gasoline California’s infrastructure can move from tankers to market.

As UC Berkeley energy expert Severin Borenstein told SFGATE last year:

“[Losing in-state refineries] means you have to bring in gasoline from all over the world, and that means you have to have port facilities, and you have to have pipelines, you have to have places to store it, and California is not prepared on those fronts.”

California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda has warned Governor Newsom of the state’s import capacity limits. In a June 2025 letter, Gunda wrote:

“Increasing marine imports of gasoline to replace lost supply especially in the near term can be costly, slow, and constrained by bottlenecks in import infrastructure.”

Gunda stated that “action is needed in the short term to make sure California has an adequate supply of fuel,” noting that “[p]ermitting delays and investment uncertainty” can be barriers to building the necessary infrastructure.

Stanford economist Ryan Cummings agrees. Regarding Valero’s plan to shut down fuel production at its Benicia refinery, Cummings told Bloomberg News in December 2025:

“Things are going to get pretty dicey, pretty quickly. If there’s no increase in import capacity to replace that lost production – especially as you’re heading into the summer peak driving season – then you’re going to see a material increase in prices.”

Valero’s subsequent decision to utilize the Benicia facility as an import terminal may mitigate some of the state’s most immediate infrastructure needs, but California’s ability to accommodate additional imports remains uncertain at best.

As the CEC’s Transportation Fuels Assessment warns:         

“[L]ong lead times make marine imports of refined gasoline less feasible for meeting immediate demand when California refineries experience unplanned reductions in capacity or have other supply shortages.”

Relying on imports adds immense complexity to the gasoline supply chain – and that complexity only increases the risk of shortages and price spikes that working families can’t afford.