In an effort to avoid potentially catastrophic refinery and pipeline closures due to lack of crude supply, in September 2025 the legislature passed SB 237 authorizing new oil production in Kern County.

A subsequent analysis by Joseph B. Silvi (UC Berkeley), James W. Rector (UC Berkeley), and Michael A. Mische (USC) found SB 237 is “well-intentioned” but “likely not sufficient to stabilize the state’s pipeline and refining infrastructure.”

Here’s why:

1) CALIFORNIA STILL CONSUMES A LOT OF OIL.

“California requires around 578,000,000 to 581,000,000 barrels of crude oil-derived transportation fuels and products (such as road asphalt) annually to support its economy and to partially supply neighboring states with said fuels and products.”

“California’s consumption of crude oil and gasoline has declined moderately but not significantly over the 2001 to 2024 period. The annual rate of decline has averaged less than one percent.”

2) THE STATE IS ALREADY WELL BELOW THE LEVEL OF PRODUCTION NEEDED TO SUPPORT STABLE FUEL MARKETS.

“The California Energy Commission (CEC) has identified that annual production of 125 million barrels of oil, or approximately 343,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), is required to stabilize California’s petroleum infrastructure, including its pipelines and refineries.”

“California is already well under the CEC’s 343,000 bopd minimum level for stabilization, currently standing at approximately 285,000 bopd as of August 2025.”

3) NEW DRILLING IN KERN COUNTY WILL NOT REVERSE THE STATE’S PRODUCTION DECLINE.

“The passing of SB 237 and the drilling of new wells in Kern County will add an estimated 10,125 barrels of oil per day (bopd) each year through 2030. However, California’s statewide oil production is currently declining at a rate of about 18,000 bopd annually, meaning that even with SB 237, California production will still experience an annual decline.”

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THE PATH FORWARD

Silvi, Rector, and Mische call for additional production and policy reforms to stabilize fuel markets.

“The only way to stabilize in-state production is to drill and produce oil in other parts of California in addition to Kern County.”

“[Additional production outside of Kern County], along with a return to historical procedures for well operations and oil producers by CalGEM, can stabilize in-state production and prices while reducing highly pollutive foreign oil imports.”